Question 120 marks
Question
Economic challenges in Malaysia Annual growth in real GDP in Malaysia averaged 5.2% during the past ten years. There was a great deal of instability in GDP between July 2020 and July 2021, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic growth was projected to grow by between 5.5% and 6.5% in 2022. The percentage change in real GDP per annum in Malaysia between January 2019 and January 2022 is shown in Fig. 1.1. Content removed due to copyright restrictions. Source: Adapted from Press Release from the Malaysia Ministry of Finance, 11 February 2022 (a) Using the data in Fig. 1.1, describe the trend shown in the annual rate of economic growth in Malaysia over the period January 2019 to January 2022. [2] (b) Explain what is meant by ‘real GDP’. [2] (c) Consider the extent to which the potential advantages of subsidies given to firms by the Malaysian government outweigh their potential disadvantages. [4] (d) Assess how far external factors were responsible for economic growth in Malaysia over the period January 2019 to January 2022. [6] (e) Assess the possible consequences of a falling rate of unemployment for Malaysia. [6] Section B Answer one question. EITHER
Mark scheme
1(a) Using the data in Fig. 1.1, describe the trend shown in the annual rate of 2 economic growth in Malaysia over the period January 2019 to January 2022. • Overall, the rate of economic growth has fallen (1) • Overall, a fluctuating trend (1) • Up to January 2021 the growth rate fell and then became negative (1) • Whereas from July 2021 to January 2022 it became positive (1) Guidance: The trend in the period needs to be described, not every change. 1(b) Explain what is meant by ‘real GDP’. 2 • GDP refers to the total value of goods and services produced in an economy. (1) • Real GDP is GDP corrected for / taking into account the effects of inflation / price changes. (1) • Real GDP is Nominal GDP – rate of inflation. (2) Max 2 marks 1(c) Consider the extent to which the potential advantages of subsidies 4 given to firms by the Malaysian government outweigh their potential disadvantages. • Advantages include the reduction in firms’ costs of production, which may increase their competitiveness, leading to an increase in sales and AD, reducing unemployment as AS and AD both increase. It may also reduce prices for consumers, increasing consumer surplus. (MAX 2 marks) • Disadvantages include payments to firms may be used to boost profits and not reduce costs; payments will be expensive for the government and could contribute to a budget deficit, may lead to inefficiency, may lead to overseas retaliation. (MAX 2 marks) Max 3 marks overall Up to 1 mark for valid evaluation: • Relevant evaluation which considers the extent to which the potential advantages exceed the potential disadvantages of subsidies, in the context of Malaysia, for example, overall, the potential disadvantages are greater as subsidies are a significant expense for the Malaysian government. 1(d) Assess how far external factors were responsible for economic growth 6 in Malaysia over the period January 2019 to January 2022. Up to 3 marks for explanation / analysis of the extent that external factors were responsible For example, the increase in exports, reaching an all-time high in the last quarter of 2021 may lead to economic growth (1), Malaysia will benefit from an increase in the price of oil and gas leading to economic growth (1), it will also benefit from an overall growth in demand from its major trading partners / overall global economic activity (1) Up to 3 marks for explanation / analysis of the extent that internal factors were responsible. For example, the use of domestic subsidies may be causing the increase in exports (1), the policies to make markets more flexible may be the cause (1), the high level of FDI and domestic investment due to government policy may be the cause (1) Max of 4 marks overall for analysis (max 3 if factors are not clearly differentiated between internal/external) Up to 2 marks for evaluation of how far external policies were responsible for economic growth in Malaysia during the period, compared to internal factors. Reserve 1 mark for a justified conclusion. 1(e) Assess the possible consequences of a falling rate of unemployment for 6 Malaysia. Up to 3 marks for explanation / analysis of the possible positive consequences of a falling rate of unemployment for Malaysia. For example, these may include an increase in overall income levels (1) which may also improve the overall standard of living for the Malaysian population (1). This may also increase government tax revenues / reduce spending on welfare benefits (1) which may in turn be spent on improving infrastructure and spending on merit goods such as education and healthcare (1) Falling unemployment may also lead to an increase in overall output (1) which may lead to an increase in export opportunities (1) and increased investment by firms (1) Up to 3 marks for explanation / analysis of the possible negative consequences of a falling rate of unemployment for Malaysia. For example, due to rising aggregate demand (1) this may lead to demand pull inflation if aggregate supply cannot keep up (1). As wages rise and resources become scarce (1) this may lead to cost push inflation (1). It may also lead to a decline in labour productivity (1) Rising incomes may also lead to rising demand for imports (1), which may lead to a current account deficit (1). Max of 4 marks overall for analysis (Note: accept any reasonable generic suggestions as detailed knowledge of the Malaysian economy is not required) Up to 2 marks for evaluation of the possible positive and negative consequences of a falling rate of unemployment on Malaysia based on the preceding analysis. Reserve 1 mark for a justified conclusion.