Question 120 marks
Question
Inflation in Bangladesh The annual inflation rate in Bangladesh, as measured by changes in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), has varied in the period from 2009 to 2019 between 5.4% and 11.4%. The average annual rate of inflation over this period has been 6.7%, one of the highest in Asia. Table 1.1: Bangladesh Annual Inflation Rate, February 2009 to 2019 Year Inflation Rate (% change in CPI) 2009 5.4 2010 8.1 2011 11.4 2012 6.2 2013 7.5 2014 7.0 2015 6.2 2016 5.5 2017 5.7 2018 5.5 2019 5.5 Source: World Bank The relatively high rate of inflation has been caused by price rises in both the food and the non- food sectors. In terms of the food sector, there have been significant rises in the price of fish, chicken and vegetables, particularly onions. In terms of the non-food sector, price rises have been significant in healthcare, transport and energy resources such as gas. The Bangladesh Government is concerned about the possible consequences of a relatively high rate of inflation. It has now therefore set an annual inflation rate target of 5.5%. The central bank of Bangladesh has the maintenance of price stability as one of its main objectives. It uses monetary policy to control the rate of increase of prices in the country. However, there is always the possibility that tough monetary policies could do more harm than good to an economy, compared with the possible use of fiscal policy. The central bank recognises that inflation can be caused by both demand-pull and cost-push factors in the economy. A particular cause of inflation is the increase in wages. The Wage Rate Index (WRI) rose in December 2019 by 6.6% compared with a 6.4% rise in the index in November. Source: Adapted from ‘Inflation hits 9-month high’, The Daily Star, Bangladesh, 16 October 2019, accessed on 24 February 2020 (a) Describe the trend in the annual inflation rate of Bangladesh between 2009 and 2019. [2] (b) Explain why price changes in the food and the non-food sectors in Bangladesh are treated differently when calculating the CPI. [2] (c) Explain one domestic consequence and one external consequence for Bangladesh of having ‘a relatively high rate of inflation’. [4] (d) Analyse, with the help of aggregate demand and aggregate supply diagrams, how increasing wages can cause both demand-pull and cost-push inflation in Bangladesh. [6] (e) ‘However, there is always the possibility that tough monetary policies could do more harm than good to an economy, compared with the possible use of fiscal policy.’ Discuss whether monetary policy or fiscal policy is more likely to be effective in controlling inflation. [6] Section B Answer one question.
Mark scheme
1(a) Describe the trend in the annual inflation rate of Bangladesh between 2 No mark to be given to answers that just 2009 and 2019. state the eleven figures without any recognition of the overall trend. Although the inflation rate is virtually the same in 2009 and 2019, the trend has been up and down during this period, i.e., the trend is fluctuating. (1 mark) Within this overall trend, it rose between 2009 and 2011 and then fell between 2012 and 2019, although within those years it both rose and fell. (1 mark) The inflation rate was not lower than 5.4% in any of the years between 2009 and 2019 but was significantly higher in four of the years: 11.4% in 2011, 8.1% in 2010, 7.5% in 2013 and 7.0% in 2014. (1 mark) 2 marks maximum 1(b) Explain why price changes in the food and non-food sectors in 2 Bangladesh: Bangladesh are treated differently when calculating the CPI. There have been significant price rises in the food sector, including: A basic recognition that price changes in the food and the non-food sectors vegetables, particularly onions in Bangladesh may be different, possibly including some appropriate fish examples chicken (1 mark) There have also been significant price rises A clear recognition of the importance of weights in the construction of a in the non-food sector, including: CPI/a specific reference to, and explanation of, weightings in the calculation healthcare of the CPI for a country. There needs to be a clear reference to transport weights/weightings by a candidate to award the second mark energy resources such as gas (1 mark) Weighting: the situation where certain products are given larger weights to reflect the greater proportion of income spent on them takes into account the relative importance of the components of a CPI 1(c) Explain one domestic consequence and one external consequence for 4 The domestic consequences for Bangladesh of having ‘a relatively high rate of inflation’. Bangladesh of a relatively high rate of inflation could include: For an identification of one possible domestic consequence. (1 mark) redistribution of income as the real For an explanation of one possible domestic consequence. (1 mark) earnings of some workers in Bangladesh rise and the real For an identification of one possible external consequence (1 mark) earnings of others in Bangladesh For an explanation of one possible external consequence (1 mark) fall borrowers in Bangladesh will gain and lenders in Bangladesh will lose menu costs in Bangladesh, e.g., the cost of changing prices shoe leather costs in Bangladesh, e.g., the search for good returns greater uncertainty – could discourage investment in Bangladesh purchasing power of money for people in Bangladesh weaker The external consequences for Bangladesh of a relatively high rate of inflation could include: if the rate of inflation in Bangladesh is higher than in other countries (it states it is one of the highest in Asia), this will make the country’s exports less competitive (the effect will depend on PED) this may worsen the current account position of Bangladesh. 1(d) Analyse, with the help of aggregate demand and aggregate supply 6 Demand-pull inflation: diagrams, how increasing wages can cause both demand-pull and it is stated that there has been an cost-push inflation in Bangladesh. annual increase in the Wage Rate Index (WRI) of 6.6% in the last For an analysis of demand-pull inflation in relation to wage increases. month of 2019 (1 mark) increased consumer spending, e.g., through greater consumer For an AD/AS diagram to show demand-pull inflation. confidence resulting from an (Up to 2 marks) increase in income the AD curve will shift to the right 1 mark for correct labelling of the diagram causing an increase in the general 1 mark for the shift to the right of AD, showing increase in price level price level For an analysis of cost-push inflation in relation to wage increases. Cost-push inflation: (1 mark) wage increases to employees that are not linked to higher productivity For an AD/AS diagram to show cost-push inflation. (Up to 2 marks) the AS curve will shift to the left causing an increase in the general 1 mark for correct labelling of the diagram price level 1 mark for the shift to the left of AS, showing increase in price level The diagrams need to be accurately labelled, with the vertical axis labelled ‘general price level’ or ‘price level’ and the horizontal axis labelled ‘real output’ or ‘real GDP’. 1(e) ‘However, there is always the possibility that tough monetary policies 6 Potential advantages of monetary policy: could do more harm than good to an economy, compared with the a rise in interest rates can be possible use of fiscal policy.’ effective in reducing the level of aggregate demand, especially if Discuss whether monetary policy or fiscal policy is more likely to be demand is interest-elastic; can be effective in controlling inflation. effective reducing demand-pull inflation For an explanation of the potential advantages and potential disadvantages other monetary policies to control of monetary policy in controlling inflation. (Up to 3 marks) inflation can include a reduction of (A maximum of 2 marks if only advantages or disadvantages are explained) the money supply and a rise in the exchange rate For an explanation of the potential advantages and potential disadvantages of fiscal policy in controlling inflation. (Up to 3 marks) Potential disadvantages of monetary (A maximum of 2 marks if only advantages or disadvantages are explained) policy: an increase in interest rates may 5 marks maximum not be significant enough to have an effect, i.e., demand is relatively Reserve 1 mark for a conclusion inelastic the impact of an increase in interest rates can take a relatively long time to take effect it will be less useful in controlling cost-push inflation a rise in the exchange rate will not be useful if the PED for imports and exports is inelastic a reduction of the money supply may sometimes be difficult to bring about 1(e) Potential advantages of fiscal policy: a reduction in public expenditure can help to reduce the level of aggregate demand in an economy an increase in the level of taxes can also have such an effect Potential disadvantages of fiscal policy: it may not always be easy for a government to change its expenditure/revenue plans increased taxes can have a disincentive effect less useful controlling cost-push inflation