Question 120 marks
Question
India no longer the world’s fastest-growing economy Table 1.1: India – components of aggregate demand as % of total demand Components of aggregate Quarter 4 2018 Quarter 1 2019 demand as % of total demand Consumption expenditure 58.9% 56.8% Investment expenditure 34.5% 31.8% Government expenditure 9.7% 9.9% Export expenditure 21.8% 20.0% Source: Trading Economics India’s income has grown at its slowest rate in almost five years, according to the latest data released by the government. In the past financial year - April 2018 to March 2019 - income grew by 6.8%. And in the quarter between January and March 2019, it expanded by just 5.8% - falling behind the rate of China’s growth for the first time in nearly two years. This means India is no longer the world’s fastest-growing economy. The new data make it clear that India is facing an economic slowdown. Unlike China, India’s growth in income has been driven by domestic consumption over the past 15 years. But data released over the past few months suggest that consumer spending is slowing, despite the continuing growth in incomes. Motorbike and scooter sales are down. Demand for bank loans has slowed and India’s leading maker of fast-moving consumer goods, such as packaged food and drink, has reported slower revenue growth in the past quarter. However, sales of smartphones have continued to increase faster than incomes have been growing. All of these are important indicators for measuring the state of consumption spending. The government has promised that it would cut income tax to ensure greater purchasing power and some economists believe that the government should also consider cutting business taxes in the next budget, which will be announced in July 2019. These measures should act as a stimulus for the economy. India’s government has promised to spend US$1.44 trillion to build roads and other infrastructure such as bridges and street lighting, but India’s large budget deficit might restrict the government’s options. Many observers say that this money will have to come from the private sector. Experts say that the widening fiscal deficit will hold back medium-term and long-term growth. Weak exports have also been a problem when it comes to creating jobs. In response the government is expected to prioritise policies that will make Indian businesses more competitive. Source: Sameer Hashmi, BBC News, 31 May 2019 (a) Calculate import expenditure as a percentage of total demand in India in quarter 1 2019. [1] (b) The Indian government promised that it would cut income tax to ensure greater purchasing power for consumers. (i) Explain how economists would measure the impact of a cut in income tax upon the demand for different goods such as scooters and smartphones. [2] (ii) With reference to the data, explain whether the impact of the income tax cut is likely to be the same on the demand for scooters and the demand for smartphones. [2] (c) Using the information, identify one policy that could be considered a supply-side measure and explain how this policy could make Indian businesses more competitive. [3] (d) Discuss whether the advantages of cutting interest rates in the Indian economy would outweigh the disadvantages. [6] (e) Consider whether roads and other items of infrastructure in India would be better provided by the private sector or by the government in India. [6] Section B Answer one question.
Mark scheme
1(a) Calculate import expenditure as a percentage of total demand in India 1 Method of calculation is not required, only in quarter 1 2019. the final answer. Accept 18.5 18.5% (1 mark) 1(b)(i) The Indian government promised that it would cut income tax to ensure 2 For the first mark, all that is required is greater purchasing power for consumers. identification of the measure Explain how economists would measure the impact of a cut in income For the second mark, this must explain what tax upon the demand for different goods such as scooters and is being measured and/or provide a formula smartphones. For recognition that they would use the income elasticity of demand (1 mark) because this measures the response of demand for a good to a change in income (1 mark) 1(b)(ii) With reference to the data, explain whether the impact of the income 2 Candidates need to explain that the impact tax cut is likely to be the same on the demand for scooters and the will vary according to the nature of each demand for smartphones. type of good and apply it to the case of scooters and smartphones. The data For an explanation that, according to the data, scooters show a decline in suggest that there is ‘continuing growth of demand as incomes are rising, meaning they are inferior goods (1 mark) incomes’. The data also state that scooter sales are down, yet sales of smartphones Whereas smartphones show a rise in demand as incomes are rising, have been growing faster than incomes are meaning they are normal or luxury goods (1 mark) growing It can be concluded from the data that scooters are inferior goods and smartphones are normal or luxury goods (This would be sufficient for both marks) 1(c) Using the information, identify one policy that could be considered a 3 Supply-side measures mentioned in the supply-side measure and explain how this policy could make Indian extract include cutting income taxes, cutting businesses more competitive. business taxes and improving infrastructure. However, any valid supply-side measure For an identification of a valid supply-side measure that could make Indian that might make Indian businesses more businesses more competitive (1 mark) competitive is acceptable For an explanation of how this will make businesses more competitive Any policy chosen as a supply-side (up to 2 marks) measure should be explained as a supply- side tool rather than demand-side to gain The 3rd mark must refer specifically to ‘more competitive’. For example, one any credit at all, even for identification. For policy is to reduce business taxes (1) which will provide more available example, cutting income taxes should not money to invest in new technology (1) which will in turn improve quality of be credited if it is discussed in terms of a goods/services and/or allow prices to be reduced, therefore making the boost to consumption/demand, but only if business more competitive (1) discussed, for example, as increasing/ improving the labour force 1(d) Discuss whether the advantages of cutting interest rates in the Indian 6 Cutting interest rates will have a number of economy would outweigh the disadvantages. effects. There should be an increase in consumption and investment expenditure, For an identification of the impact of the cut in interest rates upon any and this will increase aggregate demand. In component of aggregate demand (1 mark) addition, the impact will be an outflow of foreign currency and a fall in the exchange For an explanation of how this will create possible advantages for India’s rate. This should stimulate net exports and economy (up to 2 marks) again aggregate demand will increase. The increase in aggregate demand will stimulate For an explanation of how this will create possible disadvantages for India’s output and employment economy (up to 2 marks) However, a disadvantage is that demand- For an evaluative comment on whether the advantages will outweigh the pull inflation will occur, and this has internal disadvantages (1 mark) and external consequences for India’s economy In evaluation, candidates may refer to the possible impact on LRAS due to possible additional investment. This may, of course, obviously offset any inflationary pressure 1(e) Consider whether roads and other items of infrastructure in India 6 Reasons why some infrastructure may be would be better provided by the private sector or by the government in better provided by the government may India. include accurate explanation of: • provision of public goods, i.e. those with For an explanation of why some infrastructure either could only or may be characteristics of non-rivalry and non- better provided by the government (up to 3 marks) excludability, e.g. street lighting • quasi-public goods, e.g. roads and For an explanation of why some infrastructure may be better provided by the bridges private sector (up to 3 marks) • free rider problem • merit goods 5 marks maximum • scale of investment needed Reserve 1 mark for a reasoned conclusion Reasons for private sector provision may include: • they are private goods and why, therefore, profit motive applies leading to better efficiency • government budget restrictions • opportunity cost Note: explanations must be accurate, and credit must not be given to answers that simply assert all government funded infrastructure refers to public goods