Economics 9708/23 October/November 2021: question paper and mark scheme
Cambridge AS & A Level Economics (9708), Paper 2 Data Response and Essay, October/November 2021. Read both free below, or download them. Done the paper? Get it marked by AI against this mark scheme.
China’s uncertain economic prospects
Fig. 1.1 below shows growth in real output by components of aggregate demand in China from
2010 to 2017.
17.5 consumption expenditure* investment expenditure* 15
net exports 12.5 real output growth
10
7.5 annual percentage
(%) change 5
2.5
0
–2.5
–5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
* Consumption expenditure and investment expenditure include both public sector and private sector expenditure, so government expenditure is not shown separately.
Fig. 1.1
Table 1.1 below shows the annual percentage (%) change in new car sales in China from 2010 to
2017.
Table 1.1
Year % change
2010 33.2
2011 5.2
2012 7.1
2013 15.7
2014 9.9
2015 7.6
2016 14.9
2017 2.4
Source: knoema.com, October 2019
In 2018, real output in China’s economy grew by 6.6%, its lowest figure this century (see Fig. 1.1).
Many economists believe that growth in China’s real output will continue to be around this level over the next few years.
In looking to the future, the Chinese government has sought to restructure its economy. This has resulted in an increased contribution from domestic consumption, with less reliance on large-scale manufacturing in favour of quality manufacturing. For Chinese consumers, buying a house is the main priority, followed by purchasing a new car. Table 1.1 shows the annual rate of change in new car sales from 2010 to 2017.
China’s plans for maintaining its growth in real output at a rate of around 6.6% are threatened by ongoing tensions over trade with the United States (US). These tensions provide a real threat to China meeting even its most pessimistic growth targets for real output. Various studies have estimated the effects of a protectionist trade war with the US on China’s economy. These estimates are all negative and range from –0.6% to –1.4% of real output.
Source: China Daily, 19 February 2019
(a) Use the data in Fig. 1.1 to describe how the contribution to real output growth of the different components of aggregate demand in China has changed from 2010 to 2017. [2]
(b) (i) What relationship might you expect between the rate of growth in real output and sales of new cars in an economy? [1]
(ii) Consider whether the evidence in Fig. 1.1 and Table 1.1 supports this relationship. [2]
(c) State one protectionist measure that may be adopted by the US in a trade war with China and explain what effect this would have on consumers and producers in the US. [3]
(d) Discuss whether cuts in direct taxes would increase the demand for all types of consumer goods in China. [6]
(e) Discuss whether increasing domestic consumption is the best way for China to maintain the growth in real output at the current rate ‘over the next few years’. [6]
Section B
Answer one question.
Mark scheme
1(a) Use the data in Fig. 1.1 to describe how the contribution to real 2 It is not enough to simply quote figures – some
output growth of the different components of aggregate demand measure of change in contribution is needed, i.e.
in China has changed from 2010 to 2017. increase, decrease, no discernible change, etc.
Award 1 mark for any two of the following:
• Lower contribution of investment expenditure over the period
• Relatively stable contribution in consumption expenditure
• In 2010, net exports were negative but by 2017 they were positive
/ however, over the period they have fluctuated between positive
and negative (2 marks)
1(b)(i) What relationship might you expect between the rate of growth in 1
real output and sales of new cars in an economy?
There is likely to be a positive correlation / would be expected to be a
similar pattern / trend between the rise in GDP growth and the change
in private car sales (1 mark)
1(b)(ii) Consider whether the evidence in Fig. 1.1 and Table 1.1 supports 2 1 mark to be awarded for each accurate
this relationship. statement up to a maximum of 2 marks
It is broadly consistent (1)
Highest and lowest rates of growth correspond (2010 and 2017
respectively) (1)
There is positive growth in all years for both real output and sales of
new cars, but rates of growth do not always match (1)
Growth rate is more consistent than growth in car sales throughout (1)
(2 marks)
1(c) State one protectionist measure that may be adopted by the US 3 Accept any other valid impacts on consumers and
in a trade war with China and explain what effect this would have producers, but 1 mark max. for each and both
on consumers and producers in the US. must be considered for full marks
Various possibilities including:
• Tariff, quota, regulations (maximum of 1 mark for identifying one
measure)
• Increases prices of imported goods for consumers (1) and raises
costs of production for producers due to higher imported raw
material costs (1) increases demand for domestic producers (1)
(3 marks)
1(d) Discuss whether cuts in direct taxes would increase the demand 6 Alternative ways of expressing disposable income
for all types of consumer goods in China. are acceptable and should be rewarded, e.g.
more spending power, more money in the pockets
Award 1 mark for recognising that a cut in direct taxes may increase of consumers, etc.
demand for consumer goods due to a rise in disposable income (1)
Up to 2 marks for explanation of why a cut in direct taxes would
increase demand for normal/luxury with a positive YED value
consumer goods
Up to 2 marks for an explanation of why a cut in direct taxes will not
lead to an increase in demand for inferior/negative value consumer
goods
Up to a maximum mark of 5 for analysis
Reserve 1 mark for a reasoned conclusion
1(e) Discuss whether increasing domestic consumption is the best 6 Increasing domestic consumption will increase
way for China to maintain the growth in real output at the current AD and output. This can be done through
rate ‘over the next few years’. reducing direct or indirect taxes. The increased
spending benefits the Chinese economy through
Analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of increasing domestic increased employment and can be more certain
consumption to maintain the growth in real output (up to 3 marks) than having to rely on external factors such as the
Max. 2 if only advantages or disadvantages are considered global economy or US trade policy to generate
growth. Care must be taken to not increase the
Analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of an alternative way/ rate of inflation as AD increases
ways, i.e. increased I or X (up to 3 marks). Max. 2 if only advantages
or disadvantages are considered Alternative policies could be increasing
investment or export-led growth
Up to a maximum mark of 5 for analysis
Reserve 1 mark for a reasoned conclusion
(a) Explain how the fundamental economic problem is addressed in a planned economy and in a market economy. [8]
(b) Discuss the view that in a mixed economy the only role of government should be to provide public goods and the supply of merit goods should be left to the private sector. [12]
Mark scheme
2(a) Explain how the fundamental economic problem is addressed in 8 The fundamental economic problem is tackled by
a planned economy and in a market economy. means of market forces in a market economy. In
a planned economy it is in the hands of
For knowledge and understanding of fundamental economic government to ensure that resource allocation is
problem, scarce resources (1) but unlimited wants (1) (up to 2 marks) equitable and possible
And application that explains how this problem is addressed in a
planned economy. Central planning, government allocation of
resources, welfare, etc. may be discussed (up to 3 marks)
And further application how this problem is addressed in a market
economy. The role of the price mechanism, e.g. rationing, signalling,
interaction of demand and supply, etc., may be discussed
(up to 3 marks)
2(b) Discuss the view that in a mixed economy the only role of 12 Merit goods such as health provision, education
government should be to provide public goods and the supply of and childcare are usually provided by both private
merit goods should be left to the private sector. and public sectors in a mixed economy. When
provided by the private sector, a charge is usually
Analysis of the reasons why public goods are provided by the but not always made at the point of use
government and not the private sector (up to 4 marks)
Government provision is funded through taxation;
Analysis of the reasons why merit goods may be provided by consumers will be charged a subsidised price or
the private sector and/or the government (up to 4 marks) no charge at all. Much depends upon efficiency
and how governments view the benefits of merit
8 marks maximum goods provision
For an evaluation of whether the only role of government in a mixed Without the involvement of government, some
economy is to provide public goods and that merit goods should be merit goods may be underprovided – may be
left to the private sector (up to 4 marks) used as an evaluative comment
Reserve 1 mark for a valid conclusion Note: there are no KU marks awarded in part (b)
for merely explaining/defining terms or phrases
used within the question
(a) Using the concept of price elasticity of demand, explain why increasing the price of the product is:
(i) a bad idea for a firm producing a product that constitutes a large proportion of household income, and
(ii) a good idea for a firm producing a product that constitutes a small proportion of household income. [8]
(b) Discuss whether cross elasticity of demand or income elasticity of demand is likely to be more useful in assisting a firm in its pricing decisions. [12]
Mark scheme
3(a) Using the concept of price elasticity of demand, explain why 8
increasing the price of the product is: Where PED is elastic, an increase in price will
lead to less revenue
(i) a bad idea for a firm producing a product that constitutes a
large proportion of household income, and A firm with an inelastic PED will experience an
increase in its revenue if it increases the price of
(ii) a good idea for a firm producing a product that constitutes a its product
small proportion of household income.
Note: simple explanations of the impact of
For knowledge and understanding, meaning of PED (1) plus an elasticity should not be credited, e.g. an increase
accurate formula (1) (up to 2 marks) in price leads to a large fall in demand/no change
in demand. The answer must refer to % or
And application: proportional changes
For explanation of the effects on revenue where PED is elastic (i). For
a product that constitutes a large proportion of household income this
means that the PED will most likely be elastic (1) which means (1) so
revenue is likely to fall (1) (up to 3 marks)
For explanation of the effects on revenue where PED is inelastic (ii).
For a product that constitutes a small proportion of household income
this means that the PED is likely to be inelastic (1) which means (1) so
revenue is likely to rise (1) (up to 3 marks)
3(b) Discuss whether cross elasticity of demand or income elasticity 12 XED and YED should only be analysed in the
of demand is likely to be more useful in assisting a firm in its context of their usefulness in assisting a firm in its
pricing decisions. pricing decisions
For an analysis of price changes on the market for substitutes and Note: there are no KU marks awarded in part (b)
complements (up to 4 marks but a max. of 3 if only complements for merely explaining/defining terms or phrases
or substitutes are considered) used within the question
For an analysis of price changes on normal/luxury goods and inferior
goods when incomes change (up to 4 marks but a max. of 3 if only
normal/luxury or inferior goods are considered)
8 marks maximum
For an evaluation of which of the two measures is likely to be most
useful to the firm in its pricing decisions (up to 4 marks)
Reserve 1 mark for a conclusion
(a) Explain how inflation is measured and why a rising rate of inflation may be of concern to consumers and producers. [8]
(b) Discuss whether a policy of increasing interest rates is the best way of controlling a rising rate of inflation in an economy. [12]
Mark scheme
4(a) Explain how inflation is measured and why a rising rate of 8 Inflation occurs when there is a rise in the general
inflation may be of concern to consumers and producers. price level in an economy. It is usually measured
by the annual change in a Consumer Prices Index
For knowledge and understanding of what is meant by inflation and (CPI). A rising rate of inflation is of concern
how it is measured. Inflation is a sustained increase in the (general) depending on its extent and how this compares
price level (1) and is normally measured by the CPI or equivalent with any stated target
index (1) (up to 2 marks)
Reference to fixed income earners, menu costs,
And application that explains the problems for consumers (e.g. loss shoe leather costs, export competitiveness and
of purchasing power if on fixed income, erosion of real value of business confidence are relevant
savings). 1 mark per explained problem (up to 3 marks)
At least two problems for each should be
And further application that explains the problems for producers (e.g. explained and one problem well explained can
menu costs, difficulty in making long-term decisions such as gain 2 marks.
investment). 1 mark per explained problem (up to 3 marks)
4(b) Discuss whether a policy of increasing interest rates is the best 12 There are various policies for controlling a rising
way of controlling a rising rate of inflation in an economy. rate of inflation, one of which is increasing interest
rates. This policy is expected to reduce
For analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of a policy of consumption and investment by firms whilst
increasing interest rates to control inflation. (Up to 4 marks but 3 increasing savings. The effectiveness though
marks max. if only advantages or disadvantages are considered) depends upon the rate of inflation and the time it
takes for increased interest rates to have an
For analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of at least one impact. Fiscal and supply-side policies are
other policy used to control inflation. (Up to 4 marks but 3 marks alternative methods of control
max. if only advantages or disadvantages are considered)
Note: there are no KU marks awarded in part (b)
8 marks maximum for merely explaining/defining terms or phrases
used within the question
For an evaluation as to which is likely to be the best policy to control
inflation (up to 4 marks)
Reserve 1 mark for a valid conclusion
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Economics 9708/23 for October/November 2021 is out of 40 marks, with 1 hour 30 minutes to answer it.
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